Shaw Financial

19 Apr INFLATION IN-DEPTH

Producer and consumer prices moved higher in March, but both remain manageable. Inflation has been a major topic for financial markets in 2018, with concerns initially sparked by a January wage growth number that exceeded expectations. Wage growth cooled somewhat in February and March, though it currently stands at...

17 Apr DID STOCKS BOTTOM?

The February 2018 market correction caught many investors off guard, but the longer-term trend remains higher. This year has provided more volatility than we’ve seen in recent years, with many wondering if the movement is a sign that the bull market is ending. Remember that when the market...

29 Mar BEIGE BOOK: WINDOW ON MAIN STREET

BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODERATE ECONOMIC GROWTH The Federal Reserve (Fed) was in the news last week, as markets digested the March 20–21 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement. The outcomes of the meeting were broadly in line with market expectations, with the Fed hiking interest rates by...

22 Mar WILL THIS SIXTEEN BE SWEET?

The “Sweet 16” is set. In the spirit of March Madness and an exciting NCAA college basketball tournament that has brought some historic upsets, epic comebacks, and exciting buzzer beaters, we have compiled our “Sweet 16” for the stock market. Specifically, we have identified 16 keys for stocks...

20 Mar FED PREVIEW

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jay Powell will preside over his first Fed policy meeting March 20–21. Although this is his first meeting as chair, Powell has been a voting member of the policy committee since 2012 and is a seasoned veteran of Fed policy meetings. The Fed is...

15 Mar FIVE FORECASTERS: FEW WARNING SIGNS

Our favorite leading indicators are signaling that further economic growth and stock market gains lie ahead. With the bull market celebrating its ninth birthday on March 9, we looked at some of our preferred leading economic and bull market indicators. We included LPL Research’s proprietary “Over Index” and two...

13 Mar FEBRUARY EMPLOYMENT REPORT

The February employment report crushed expectations for the number of jobs created (313,000 versus the consensus expectation of 205,000), but wage growth moderated from the surprising January levels. January’s numbers were also revised higher from 196,000 to 238,000, and the total two-month revision increased by 54,000. The headline number...

07 Mar THE BULL IS 9, CAN IT MAKE 10?

The bull market will celebrate its ninth birthday on March 9, 2018. During that nine-year period, the S&P 500 Index nearly increased fourfold in value including dividends, producing a total return of 385% (19.2% annualized) while rising almost 300% in price. The recent market volatility, driven by fears...

13 Feb CORRECTION PERSPECTIVES

After an extraordinary two-year period of market calm, the major U.S. equity markets slipped into correction territory last week. A perfect storm of investor worries collided over the past six trading days, including inflation, monetary policy, and the unwinding of crowded, complex trades. The result was an unprecedented bout...

08 Feb GDP, PCE, AND JOBS

U.S. stocks and bonds were hit by inflation concerns over the past week, but what is the economic data telling us? A barrage of U.S. economic data was released over the past two weeks, including major reports such as fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP), personal consumption expenditure...