The conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting on July 26 will end a busy seven days for central bank watchers that also saw meetings for two other major central banks — the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The Fed’s...
Since 2012, real global gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been between 3.1 and 3.5% annually, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates, with 2016 seeing the slowest growth of the period. At the start of the year, broad expectations were that continued support from...
Can overseas earnings continue to grow and extend the first-half rally in many international markets? That is the question investors are asking as second quarter 2017 earnings season begins. Since the financial crisis of 2008, U.S. companies and equity markets have generally outperformed their overseas peers. Greater...
Earnings season is underway this week (July 10–14) and may be another good one, with double-digit S&P 500 Index earnings growth possible. But getting to double digits will be tougher than it was in the first quarter when S&P 500 earnings increased more than 15% year over year. First...
U.S. manufacturing still matters when evaluating the U.S. and global economy. While manufacturing as a percent of the U.S. economy has declined steadily since the end of World War II, its impact is greater than its size. Manufacturing tends to be more cyclical than service activity, and it remains...
An important shift has taken place in this economic cycle. The Federal Reserve (Fed) was finally able to start following through on its projected rate hike path, raising rates twice in just over a three-month period. By doing so, the Fed showed increasing trust that the economy has largely...
The global equity bull market is alive and well, with very broad participation. Longer-term technicals continue to look very healthy and strong, even as the bull market and economic recovery in the U.S. turns eight years old. A closer look at key indexes suggests the path of least...
As June ends and summer sets in, markets continue to track near all-time highs and volatility remains low. As we turn the page to July, there will be plenty of significant events for markets to watch such as the June employment report, the start of earnings season, and...
We continue to look for the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to expand near 2.5% in 2017, although potential delays in passing major fiscal policies introduce some risk to the downside. This below-trend pace is still somewhat stronger than the trajectory that the economy has experienced throughout the...
We forecast 6–9% returns for the S&P 500 Index in 2017. As investors increasingly trust that the economy can stand on its own without the need of monetary policy support, business fundamentals should take over as the primary market engine and corporate profits will take on increasing importance. We...