Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech Friday at the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, served as a fitting complement to the minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting. Both Powell’s comments and the minutes reinforced the Fed’s strong case for hiking rates for the third...
The Turkish currency crisis is threatening an otherwise favorable EM outlook. Emerging market (EM) equities have experienced significant selling pressure this month amid the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China and the crisis in Turkey, which has sparked contagion fears and threatened to send the country...
The current environment looks favorable for strong earnings and stock gains. We do expect volatility, but steady economic growth provides a strong backdrop and the potential for opportunity. The first half of 2018 saw the return of equity volatility after the docile trading patterns of 2017. The surge in...
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Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have been building over the course of 2018. These tensions have escalated over the last month, but while risks are rising, economic disruptions have remained minimal. We continue to believe the final economic impact of current trade tensions won’t be insignificant,...
Escalating trade tensions have made for a difficult investing environment. This is not news to anyone at this point. But investors’ angst was ratcheted higher last week after the Trump administration played its next card — announcing tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods — sooner...
MEANS, MOTIVE, AND OPPORTUNITY Increased business capital expenditures, or “capex,” remain one of the most important pieces for improving the long-term growth trajectory of the U.S. economy. Capital expenditures help increase productivity, and improved productivity is the foundation for sustainable higher growth for developed economies. Both survey and hard data...
When will value have its day in the sun? The growth style’s historic run of outperformance has continued this year, despite the emergence of several drivers that have traditionally served as catalysts for value stock outperformance. Generally, value stocks benefit from an economic growth tailwind, whereas growth stocks tend...
The May employment report confirmed that the job market remains healthy, with job creation showing signs of stabilizing after steadily slowing over the last several years. A healthy labor market should continue to provide support for the economy and consumer spending, and we may even see some acceleration...
We continue to prefer emerging market (EM) equities in tactical asset allocations. EM equities have given back strong early-year gains, pushing the MSCI EM Index into negative territory year to date on a total return basis. Many headwinds have weighed on EM stocks, including rising interest rates, U.S....