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Our favorite leading indicators are signaling that further economic growth
and stock market gains lie ahead. With the bull market celebrating its ninth
birthday on March 9, we looked at some of our preferred leading economic and
bull market indicators. We included LPL Research’s proprietary “Over Index” and
two of the Five Forecasters (the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index and
stock market breadth), in an effort to help assess the likelihood that the bull market
will reach its tenth birthday in a year. This week, we will look at the remaining three
forecasters: the Treasury yield curve, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)
Manufacturing Index, and stock valuations. Historically, these indicators—which
are summarized in our Recession Watch Dashboard—have collectively signaled a
transition to the latter stages of the economic cycle and an increased potential of an
oncoming recession and bear market


View the full weekly market commentary here.

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