FORECASTING FOLLIES: FED HITS ITS MARK IN 2017
With the end of the year fast approaching, ‘tis the season for reflection
on forecasts past and the sharing of forecasts future. We do not have an
award for “Forecast of the Year,” but if we did, in 2017 it would go to the Federal
Reserve (Fed). While the Fed’s “dot plots” are not a forecast strictly speaking,
it’s fair to take the median dot as a rough consensus view. With its rate hike last
week, the Fed hit its mark of three hikes in 2017, matching the view set out in its
final set of dot plots in 2016. With the economy surprising to the upside, the Fed
was able to follow through on its expected rate hike path in 2017, and begin to
reduce its balance sheet.
View the full weekly economic commentary here.
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